DATA & FIGURES
The war has resulted in a significant increase in oil prices, with prices swinging from levels not seen since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to close to where they were before the conflict more than four months ago. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally sees around 20 million barrels of oil pass through it each day, has been the focal point of the conflict, with attacks on commercial vessels reigniting fears for seafarers' safety. The global renewable energy capacity hit a record high in 2025, with non-fossil fuel projects accounting for approximately 86 percent of added power capacity that year.
THE SCENARIO
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has created a complex geopolitical landscape, with energy security imperatives likely to lead many governments to stockpile fossil fuels in the near-term. However, the medium to long-term economic case for renewables is expected to strengthen as geopolitical risk inflates 'the true cost' of fossil fuel dependence.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The oil market will never be the same, following this conflict. New pipelines will urgently be built. New security arrangements will be put into place, and the buyers of oil from the region will look elsewhere for diversification." — Adi Imsirovic, veteran oil trader and lecturer at the University of Oxford
BBN INSIGHT
The Positive Side: The conflict is expected to accelerate the shift from fossil fuels to renewables, with countries like China, the US, and Qatar well-positioned to benefit from the transition. The Negative Side: The war has already had a devastating impact on the global economy, with surging fuel costs and supply chain disruptions affecting businesses and consumers alike. The conflict has also raised concerns over the long-term stability of the global energy market, with the potential for future disruptions and price shocks.
MARKET REACTION
The price of oil has been highly volatile since the start of the conflict, with prices swinging wildly in response to developments on the ground. The price of LNG has also been affected, with suppliers seeking to capitalize on the disruption to traditional trade routes.