DATA & FIGURES
$71 a barrel, 380 million barrels of oil have moved through the Strait of Hormuz since early May, 41-43 million people attended the six-day funeral for the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
THE SCENARIO
The US-Iran conflict has escalated into a 'dangerous test of wills', with each side trying to show that it can absorb the other's attacks and respond forcefully, without tipping the conflict back into full-scale war. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of other regional countries, including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, which host US military facilities and have come under Iranian attack.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The Trump administration is demanding that Iran publicly acknowledge that the Strait of Hormuz is open and pledge to stop firing on commercial ships" — US officials, Axios
BBN INSIGHT
The Positive Side: The US and Iran are still engaged in 'technical talks', and there is hope that things might not spiral further. The Negative Side: The conflict has already had a significant impact on the global economy, with oil prices steadying on Friday after a bumpy week. The situation remains volatile, and the world might witness yet more waves of US attacks by Saturday night and into Sunday. The escalation of the conflict could have severe consequences for the global economy, including higher oil prices, increased inflation, and decreased economic growth.
MARKET REACTION
Oil prices steadied on Friday after a bumpy week, with gasoline prices lagging crude's sharp decline. The price of Bitcoin may not have found its bottom yet, but the evidence is becoming harder to ignore, with improving ETF flows, deeply oversold conditions, and supportive seasonality suggesting panic may finally be giving way to cautious optimism.