DATA & FIGURES
The US has struck 170 Iranian targets, with oil prices surging to $79 per barrel and crack spreads reaching near record highs. The UAE's pipeline to Fujairah is underway, with the Saudis potentially expanding their East-West Red Sea pipeline by 2m barrels per day. The US is also preparing for an extended confrontation, with the potential for a wider conflict looming.
THE SCENARIO
The US-Iran conflict is escalating rapidly, with the potential for a wider conflict looming. The situation is complex, with multiple factors at play, including the US blockade of Iranian oil, the surge in oil prices, and the potential for a larger war. The choice to deescalate now lies with Tehran, with the US having made it clear that it will retaliate harder if Iran continues to strike ships in Hormuz.
DIRECT QUOTE
"It ain't over till it's over, but..." — Michael Every, Rabobank
BBN INSIGHT
The Positive Side: The US is taking a strong stance against Iran, which could lead to a reduction in tensions in the region and a decrease in the risk of a wider conflict. The Negative Side: The situation is escalating rapidly, with the potential for a wider conflict looming, which could lead to a surge in oil prices, a decrease in global trade, and a high level of uncertainty in global markets. The impact on everyday people could be significant, with the potential for higher energy costs, decreased economic growth, and a decrease in global stability.
MARKET REACTION
Oil prices have surged to $79 per barrel, with crack spreads reaching near record highs. The market is on high alert, with the potential for a wider conflict looming and the choice to deescalate now lying with Tehran.