DATA & FIGURES
The US has used an estimated 50% of its Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles during its war with Iran, with 2,330 missiles in stock before the war. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that it could take 42 months for the US to replenish its stockpiles of Patriot missiles. The US has also shot 1,000 Tomahawk missiles in Iran, leaving limited supplies for other countries.
THE SCENARIO
The shortage of key arms has raised concerns about the ability of European countries to defend themselves against potential threats, particularly from Russia. The US has been critical of European countries' defence budgets, with Donald Trump and his secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, calling for increased spending. However, the shortage of arms has sparked concerns that the US may not be able to fulfil its commitments to Nato allies.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The reason for this is precisely the insufficient supply of interceptor missiles. It is very important that the world, especially America and our European partners, come out of the Nato summit in Ankara with strong decisions to support our defence of the sky, and hence, the protection of ordinary people’s lives." — Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
BBN INSIGHT
The shortage of key arms has significant implications for Nato allies, who may need to consider alternative defence strategies. This could include increasing defence spending, developing new production lines, or seeking alternative suppliers. However, this may take time, leaving a 5-10 year gap in defence production. The Positive Side: The shortage could lead to increased cooperation among European countries, with Canada recently agreeing to buy 12 hi-tech German submarines. The Negative Side: The shortage raises concerns about the ability of European countries to defend themselves, particularly in the face of an aggressive Russia.