DATA & FIGURES
The deal between the US and Iran includes a potential $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, to be paid by the GCC. The reopening of the Hormuz strait is expected to take 1-2 weeks to get energy flowing through the strait again, according to a US official, but other experts suggest it may take 40-50 days. Chinese retail sales dropped 0.6% y-o-y in May, and investment spending was -4.1% y-o-y year-to-date. Industrial production was 4.5% y-o-y, and property investment was -16.2% y-o-y.
THE SCENARIO
The geopolitical context of the deal is complex, with Israel strongly opposed to the agreement and PM Netanyahu facing a tough election. The EU has also launched a Ukraine and Moldova accession process, which could escalate tensions with Moscow. The US is pushing for a 'no-China' critical minerals plan to decouple western supply chains upstream, which could lead to further trade tensions.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The Iran deal has hammered Netanyahu's re-election chances on Polymarket, now 2% below Eizenkot for next Israeli PM, after being in the lead all year" — Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank
BBN INSIGHT
The deal between the US and Iran is a significant development, but its implications are far from clear. The lack of details and the complex geopolitical context make it difficult to predict the outcome. The EU's accession process for Ukraine and Moldova and the US's push for a 'no-China' critical minerals plan are also significant developments that could impact global trade and relations.