DATA & FIGURES
The attacks have resulted in at least 25 ships being hit in the past four days, with 36 ships hit in total, according to Ukraine's military. The ships were carrying around 7,000 tons of fuel each, and the strikes have resulted in significant disruptions to Russia's fuel supplies, with fuel rationing or shortages in over 90% of Russian regions. Vladimir Putin has estimated Crimea's monthly fuel needs at 70,000 tons.
THE SCENARIO
The attacks are part of a broader context of escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine seeking to disrupt Russia's ability to maintain control over occupied Crimea. The strikes on Russian ships near Crimea are a significant escalation of the conflict, and have significant implications for the global energy market. The conflict has already resulted in significant disruptions to global energy supplies, and the latest attacks are likely to exacerbate these disruptions.
DIRECT QUOTE
"Russians must 'feel that it is their state that is waging war'" — Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian President
BBN INSIGHT
The Positive Side: The attacks on Russian ships near Crimea demonstrate Ukraine's ability to disrupt Russia's fuel supplies and maritime logistics, which could weaken Russia's control over occupied Crimea. The Negative Side: The attacks have significant implications for the global energy market, and could result in further disruptions to fuel supplies and price increases. The strikes also raise concerns about the potential for escalation of the conflict, and the impact on civilians in the region. For example, the fuel shortages in over 90% of Russian regions could have significant impacts on the daily lives of Russian citizens, particularly in terms of their ability to access basic necessities like food and healthcare.