DATA & FIGURES
Ukraine's drone force commander Robert Brovdi reported that 14 Russian ships were hit in the Sea of Azov on Thursday evening, taking the number of Russian ships struck by Ukrainian drones to 35 over the last 96 hours. Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth stalled in the first quarter, according to official data, following a sharp slowdown last year and a temporary boost from surging military spending in 2024 and 2023.
THE SCENARIO
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated in recent weeks, with Ukraine targeting high-profile oil refineries in major Russian cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg. The drone strikes have raised the risk of escalation and have sparked a fuel crisis in Russia, with long queues seen at petrol stations across the country.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The costs of war are mounting for the Kremlin." — Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist at Berenberg
BBN INSIGHT
The intensified drone attacks on Russian fuel tankers near Crimea have significant implications for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Positive Side: The attacks have raised the cost of war for Russia, potentially weakening its resolve to continue the conflict. Additionally, the attacks have disrupted Russia's energy revenues, which could have a positive impact on Ukraine's economy. The Negative Side: The attacks have sparked a fuel crisis in Russia, which could have severe consequences for the Russian economy and its people. Furthermore, the escalation of the conflict raises the risk of further violence and instability in the region.