DATA & FIGURES
The UAE's crude output has surged to 3.8 million barrels per day in June, the highest since April 2020. The country's exports have also risen, with Bloomberg data showing exports of 3.94 million barrels per day, just shy of the record hit in late 2025. The International Energy Agency has assessed the UAE's production level at 2.8 million bpd in May and 3.64 million bpd in February. The combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran have risen by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd.
THE SCENARIO
The surge in UAE crude output comes as oil markets have shifted from concerns over severe supply disruptions during the Iran war to worries about surplus supply. The increase in production has been driven by the country's desire to supply global markets without restrictions, according to Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei. The move has also been fueled by a surge in Chinese buying, with Chinese teapot refineries emerging as buyers in Adnoc's latest oil tender.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The UAE owed it to investors to supply what global markets required without restrictions" — Suhail al-Mazrouei, Energy Minister
BBN INSIGHT
The Positive Side: The surge in UAE crude output is likely to lead to increased revenue for the country and its investors. The move is also expected to lead to increased economic activity and job creation in the oil and gas sector. The Negative Side: The increase in production is likely to lead to a surplus in global oil supplies, which could lead to a decrease in oil prices and negatively impact the revenue of other oil-producing countries. The surge in Chinese buying is also likely to lead to increased competition for other oil-producing countries, which could lead to a decrease in their market share.
MARKET REACTION
Brent crude, which hit a four-year high above $126 in late April, was trading at about $72 a barrel on Monday, around levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war in late February.