Trump May Get Birthday Gift of an Iran Deal, but the Party May be Short-Lived

DATA & FIGURES

The deal could vastly ease domestic pressure on Trump, who faced bipartisan demands – from the Democrats and some Republicans – for a clear exit strategy from unauthorised military actions. Driven by spiking energy costs triggered by the war with Iran, US annual inflation accelerated to 4.2 per cent in May, marking a three-year high.

THE SCENARIO

The geopolitical context of the deal is complex, with Israel being a major factor. Israel has vowed to remove what Prime Minister described as “existential threats”. The deal could also offer Iran – which faces its own economic pressure because of war damage and the US naval blockade – a much-needed “breathing spell” as well.

DIRECT QUOTE

"Although the US and Iran have reached a temporary ceasefire, Israel has not agreed to it. If Israel continues military operations in Lebanon, it could undermine the US-Iran peace agreement and reignite the conflict." — Sun Degang, Director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University

BBN INSIGHT

The deal is likely to temporarily reduce violence, increase maritime traffic, and provide parties with more time to finalise details. However, the sustainability of the deal is uncertain, and Israel could be the unpredictable factor that undermines the agreement.