Iran Shifts to Doctrine of Deterrence After Khamenei's Assassination

DATA & FIGURES

February 28 is the date of the US-Israeli strike on Khamenei's compound, and at least 2 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza.

THE SCENARIO

The ongoing conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has led to a complex geopolitical situation, with each side testing the other's red lines. The funeral of Khamenei in Iraq has become a declaration of Iran's influence across the Shia world, and the shift in doctrine has significant implications for the wider region.

DIRECT QUOTE

"neither side will shoot the other during the funeral proceedings" — US President Donald Trump

BBN INSIGHT

The Positive Side of this development is that it may lead to a more stable and secure region, as Iran's new doctrine of deterrence could prevent further escalation. However, The Negative Side is that it also increases the risk of conflict, as the US and Israel may view Iran's actions as a threat, leading to further attacks and instability. This could have significant implications for the global economy, particularly the oil market, and could lead to increased tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran.