DATA & FIGURES
The Prosperity Party won more than 90 percent of the available seats in the last parliamentary elections in 2021. This year's victory solidifies Abiy Ahmed's position, with his government projecting economic growth of over 10 percent in 2026, one of the fastest rates in Africa.
THE SCENARIO
The elections took place against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic challenges. Ethiopia has faced years of conflict, including a civil war in the northern Tigray region from 2020-2022, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. Although a 2022 peace deal ended the conflict, there are warnings of the risk of fresh unrest, particularly after Tigray's main political party moved to reassert control over the region's political administration in violation of the agreement.
DIRECT QUOTE
"Though a 2022 peace deal ended the conflict, Tigray’s main political party moved in May to reassert control over the region’s political administration in violation of the agreement. That has led Ethiopian officials and analysts to warn of the risk of fresh unrest." — Al Jazeera Staff and Reuters
BBN INSIGHT
The outcome of the elections and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ethiopia highlight the complexities of political stability and economic growth in the region. While Abiy Ahmed's government has made significant strides in improving the country's economic outlook, the underlying issues of political unrest and ethnic tensions pose significant challenges. For investors and observers, understanding these dynamics is crucial for navigating the opportunities and risks in Ethiopia and the broader African market.