DATA & FIGURES
One-third of Russia's oil refining capacity has been disrupted, resulting in a fuel shortage. 40 regions and Crimea have been affected by the petrol export bans and sales restrictions. Additionally, 40,000 troops were reportedly killed in June, according to some estimates.
THE SCENARIO
The overarching geopolitical context is one of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with economic pressure playing a significant role. The Russian economy is facing significant challenges, including a fuel crisis, which could potentially weaken the Kremlin's position and make it more susceptible to negotiations.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The strikes are not critical and the war will continue until our goals are met." — President Vladimir Putin, President of Russia
BBN INSIGHT
The Positive Side: The economic pressure on Russia could potentially lead to a negotiated settlement, bringing an end to the war. This would have significant benefits for the people of Ukraine and Russia, who have been affected by the conflict. The Negative Side: The ongoing conflict has already resulted in significant human suffering, with 40,000 troops reportedly killed in June. The economic pressure on Russia could also have unintended consequences, such as further destabilizing the region and potentially leading to more violence.