DATA & FIGURES
The LME three-month aluminum price reached a four-year high above $3,780 a ton in early June, but most of that premium has unwound. Copper prices topped $14,000 a ton in June, within reach of January's record. Tin was up 27% in the first half, while lead was down 7%. Zinc was up 14% by June on an unexpected global deficit outside China.
THE SCENARIO
The global metals market is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a source of uncertainty. However, the pending tariff decision from Washington is set to have a more significant impact on copper prices, making it a critical factor for investors and traders to watch.
DIRECT QUOTE
"The strait 'continues to reopen but it's patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent.'" — Vandana Hari, Vanda Insights
BBN INSIGHT
The Positive Side: A lifting of tariffs could lead to increased demand for copper, driving up prices and benefiting producers. On the other hand, The Negative Side: If tariffs are imposed, it could lead to decreased demand, lower prices, and negatively impact the industry. The uncertainty surrounding the tariff decision is likely to keep the market volatile, with investors and traders closely watching the developments in Washington.
MARKET REACTION
The market is pricing in a mix of expectations, with some metals like aluminum and zinc performing well, while others like lead are struggling. The copper market, in particular, is bracing for a significant move based on the tariff decision.