DATA & FIGURES
The Bitcoin network recorded its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment ever: a drop of 10.09% at block 953,568, the second-biggest decline of 2026, according to Galaxy Research. Over $4.8 billion of U.S. capital has exited Bitcoin ETF products since May, reflecting weak demand. The 25-delta options skew remains at -4% to -5%, showing traders are still paying a premium for downside protection over upside exposure.
THE SCENARIO
The U.S.-Iran deal does not fix Bitcoin's fundamental problem of 'genuinely soft institutional demand,' Levin said. The crypto market is also wrestling with underlying weakness stemming from the lack of institutional demand, capital, and attention rotation. The market has repeatedly struggled to sustain rallies on positive headlines alone, with Trump's repeated assertions that a peace deal was just around the corner—on at least 38 occasions, according to reports.
DIRECT QUOTE
"A peace deal alone does not bring that capital back." — Markus Levin, Co-Founder, XYO
BBN INSIGHT
The skepticism matters because the market has repeatedly struggled to sustain rallies on positive headlines alone. Part of the reason stems from Trump's repeated assertions that a peace deal was just around the corner—on at least 38 occasions, according to reports. The Fed's Wednesday meeting and improving institutional demand could help with Bitcoin's recovery, Decrypt was told. However, a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday would likely reload 'put demand and cap any rally from the deal news,' Levin said.
MARKET REACTION
The price of Bitcoin jumped to highs over $65,000 after President Trump announced a completed deal with Iran, but investors remain skeptical about a lasting turnaround for the crypto market. The leading crypto is trading at $65,860, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours and 4% over the past week.