DATA & FIGURES
The Bitcoin price may hit $24K if the US stock market crashes by 50% or more, according to Jesse Olson. The Coinbase Premium Index has largely remained negative so far in 2026, showing that institutional buyers are still not stepping in with conviction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $4.68 billion in net outflows since May, according to SoSoValue data, reflecting weaker demand from professional investors and other ETF buyers.
THE SCENARIO
The geopolitical, economic, or regulatory context of the potential Bitcoin price drop is tied to the overall health of the US stock market. A crash of 50% or more in the stock market could lead to a significant sell-off in Bitcoin, as investors look to cut their exposure to high-risk assets.
DIRECT QUOTE
"They operate under permanent risk management logic, they’re not looking to buy a potential bottom, they’re looking for confirmation, for performance. And that’s not the case yet." — Darkfost, CryptoQuant-associated on-chain analyst
BBN INSIGHT
The potential drop in Bitcoin's price to $24,000 highlights the importance of risk management in investing. The fact that institutional buyers are still not stepping in with conviction, as shown by the negative Coinbase Premium Index, suggests that the market is still cautious.
MARKET REACTION
The potential market reaction to a US stock market crash of 50% or more could be significant, with Bitcoin's price potentially dropping to $24,000. This could lead to a sell-off in other high-risk assets, as investors look to reduce their exposure to volatility.