DATA & FIGURES
The Global Peace Index reports that 119 economies have become less peaceful since 2008, with 103 involved in at least one external conflict over the past five years. The number of active, state-based conflicts has reached 61, the highest since the second world war. Global military spending has reached a record $2.9 trillion, with 181,000 people killed in conflicts in 2025 and 117 million displaced. The total economic cost of violence is estimated at $21.8 trillion, or 10.5% of the global gross domestic product.
THE SCENARIO
The rapid deployment of artificial intelligence in warfare is changing the nature of conflict, enabling armies to kill more people more quickly and more cheaply. This trend is driven by the increasing use of AI in military operations, which is compressing the kill chain, lowering the marginal cost of lethality, and concentrating compute and capital in a handful of firms and states.
DIRECT QUOTE
"compressing the kill chain, lowering the marginal cost of lethality and concentrating compute and capital in a handful of firms and states" — David Dodwell, CEO of Strategic Access
BBN INSIGHT
The increasing use of artificial intelligence in warfare has significant implications for global peace and stability. On the positive side, AI may enable more efficient and effective military operations, potentially reducing the risk of conflict. However, on the negative side, AI also enables armies to kill more people more quickly and more cheaply, contributing to a steady deterioration in global peace. This trend may have significant consequences for civilians, immigrants, and other vulnerable populations, who may be disproportionately affected by the increasing use of AI in warfare.