DATA & FIGURES

OpenAI and Anthropic have spent $3.17 million together on lobbying spending during the second quarter, up 23% from the first three months of the year. The US Central Command has carried out strikes in Iran for the 11th consecutive night

THE SCENARIO

The global trade agenda is being reshaped by the escalating US-China AI race, potential tariffs, and the ongoing Middle East conflict. The Trump administration's consideration of sanctions against China over AI model 'theft' may lead to further trade tensions, while the appointment of David Vélez and Robin Vince to OpenAI's boards of directors may signal a significant shift in the company's strategy. The US Central Command's strikes in Iran have raised concerns about regional stability and the potential for further conflict

DIRECT QUOTE

"If we see, especially that overseas models are stealing from our great companies, we have the ability to sanction them because of this theft" — Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary

BBN INSIGHT

The escalating US-China AI race has significant implications for the global economy. The Positive Side: The competition may drive innovation and growth in the AI sector, creating new opportunities for businesses and investors. The Negative Side: The potential for sanctions and trade restrictions may lead to increased tensions and costs for companies involved in the AI sector, ultimately affecting consumers and workers. For example, if the US imposes sanctions on China over AI model 'theft', it could lead to higher prices for AI-powered products and services, affecting businesses and consumers who rely on these technologies. Furthermore, the ongoing Middle East conflict may disrupt global supply chains and lead to increased costs for businesses and consumers

MARKET REACTION

The price of relevant assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies may be affected by the escalating US-China AI race and potential tariffs. Investors are closely watching the developments in the AI sector, as well as the trade agenda and Middle East conflict, to gauge the potential impact on the global economy. For instance, if the US imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, it could lead to a decline in the value of Chinese stocks and Renminbi, ultimately affecting investors who hold these assets