Europe Prepares for Trade War with China, But Victory Remains Uncertain

THE SCENARIO

The trade war between Europe and China is part of a larger geopolitical context, with both sides seeking to assert their influence and protect their interests. The EU is seeking to build a more resilient economy, while China is seeking to expand its global reach and challenge the existing world order

DIRECT QUOTE

"Something we really try to emphasise in the book is that Europe’s already in the trade war, and I think that’s what the public doesn’t understand" — Chad Bown, Peterson Institute for International Economics

BBN INSIGHT

The Positive Side: The EU's preparations for a trade war with China may help to build resilience and protect European industries. The Negative Side: A trade war with China could have significant costs for European businesses and consumers, and may ultimately be unwinnable. As Nadine Godehardt, a specialist in China and geopolitics, notes, 'victory would not be defeating China but surviving a decade of strategic competition while preserving enough of Europe’s industrial base, and ultimately its democratic model, to remain a viable geopolitical actor'